And now for my very favorite quote of the year, offered by Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn.  In reference to the Nissan Leaf, a zero emission vehicle, Ghosn said “this is the future, and everything else is going to look obsolete, like sending messages with pigeons”[i].

As Gnosh put it in an interview in Fast Company, “if you already have an emissions problem with 700 Million cars, what problems are you going to have with 2 Billion?”. In the case of Nissan, Ghosn is looking beyond the defined needs of customers and is anticipating the needs of the global market in a decade or more. It is not good enough to solve problems we can see, the strategist must seek to solve problems that are not readily apparent. To consider such scenarios, strategists must consider Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political trends and consider how various combinations may change the landscape of an industry.

In my book and blog“ Intended Consequences”, I predicted remarkably volatile prices for fuel and the potential for oil to reach prices of far north of $100 a barrel. The predication which became an eventuality was based on an evaluation of “converging factors”, independent trends that combine to create a tipping point. The automobile industry is on the cusp of such a fundamental shift. Toyota has been selling the Prius since, 1997 but the initial curve for adoption was remarkably slow. What we see in evidence today are converging trends that will provide the impetus to create disruptive change in the form of rapid adoption of alternative vehicles:

Political: The U.S. government’s recent announcement of an agreement with thirteen automakers that will reset the Café fuel economy standards to require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.[ii] The willingness of OEM’s (original equipment manufacturers), to work with the government in a race to dramatically improve fuel efficiency illustrates their understanding of radical changes in their operating environment.

Social: Shifting sensibilities towards sustainability will drive adoption. Electric cars are somewhat impractical for working people who may not have time to charge them (up to 8 hours) providing a leg up to hybrids.

Technology: The new Prius plug in will offer up to 87 miles to the gallon illustrating explosive improvement in battery technology. Many of the world’s top scientists are working on batteries that could expediently improve performance, size and cost.

Ecological: In Nissan’s case,  the rapid growth of highly polluted Asian markets is viewed as a driver for future demand. Recent disasters in the gulf and elsewhere have heightened awareness of the risks of oil exploration.

Economic: Americans are still fearful of OPEC’s influence and the ability of the cartel to manage worldwide oil prices. As battery prices decline, the value proposition of hybrids will only continue to improve, and the total cost of ownership for such vehicles will be drastically reduced.

Businesses are well advised to review such variables as to develop scenarios about their industry. It may not be possible to look into a magical crystal ball to predict the future, but careful study of trends provides us context on what products and services to develop in order to create disruption.

Google’s behemoth $12.5 Billion acquisition of Motorola’s phone business set a salvo across the bow in technology circles. Google’s largest acquisition raises the stakes in the quest for platform dominance. The trend towards vertical integration is clear, as Coke and Pepsi buy up their bottlers, and manufacturers such as General Motors and Boeing eat up suppliers.

Consider the plight of HP, who has no software dancing partner in the world of mobile computing and announced last week of their exit from the desktop business. Investors penalized the company (who bought competitor Compaq a decade ago) severely, erasing $12 Billion in market value with a matter of days. [i]

And then there is e-textbook publisher Kno, the VC backed darling of Silicon Valley, who recently shelved plans to create a tablet for the education market after realizing that they did not have the chops to compete on a global scale with tablet manufacturers. The company moved towards an App for iPad only to have their margins raided by Apple (who earns a 30% royalty). [ii] While Kno has enormous upside, it is unlikely to realize its vast potential unless it owns or is owned by a distribution partner.

Today’s turf wars are not with a single competitor, but with their entire distribution platforms (as in the case with mobile devices). So the consequences of globalization persist; the large get larger and the small find the right alliance or face considerable competitive disadvantage. Vertical integration provides a recipe for greater control of cycle time and quality and a significant cost advantage. At a time when margins are slimming, companies are looking to participate both up and down stream.

It appears that the swell of distribution channels has made distribution even more important, so those who can find unique methods of delivery are creating a first to market advantage, such as Amazon has with books. As private equity investors look for deal flow, and shrewd entrepreneurs look for bargain basement acquisitions, they should look not only at competition, but for suppliers or customers that present control and cost advantage throughout the entire supply chain.

With so much cash on the sideline, some sectors may be ripe for another round of consolidation. The choice many businesses face today is will they be the consolidator, or the consolidated?

The concept of a business cycle is something of a misnomer, as every company operates with an economic cycle, monetary cycle, industry cycle and company life cycle. The trajectory of these cycles, as well external forces and factors combine to provide a unique set of characteristics for every industry at any given time.

The maturity of an industry shapes its acceptance of innovation[i]:

Phase 1 Innovation- occurs when a new entrant exploits a white space.  When Under Armor burst on the scene it focused on a niche market; undergarments for football players. The brand was rugged and authentic.  As Under Armor gained distribution and awareness, it spread to new segments including baseball, tennis and golf and gained distribution in national chains such as Dick’s Sporting Goods.  The incumbent (Nike) ignored Under Armor deeming the niche as too small and the entrant as a non-threat.  Big mistake.

Phase 1 innovation is high risk, high profit

Phase 2 Innovation- occurs when a market is maturing but not saturated, and an incumbent or entrant provides new features or benefits that improve utility.  Frozen yogurt has been popular for a decade, especially in warmer climates such as California where healthier lifestyles are emphasized.

It was not until roughly 2010 that the market moved towards self-serve yogurt shops (fro-yo as the industry is called). Entrants such as Menchies provided a disruption in the form of a better delivery system (consumption is higher, and labor is lower).  The product offering itself hardly changed at all.

Phase 2 innovation tends to be moderate risk, moderate profit

Phase 3 Innovation- occurs when an industry is approaching saturation. Generally, a well funded competitor will invest heavily in supporting the status quo, making subtle changes in terms of efficiencies and distribution. At this stage, the product is commoditized and prices erode sharply.

When McDonalds began offering its McCafe coffee line in an effort to combat Starbucks, it did not offer new varieties of coffees or espresso. McDonalds leveraged its massive scale and distribution to undercut prices.  In this case, sameness plays to their strategic advantage. McDonalds lacked motivation to offer a “leap of innovation” in terms of new products.

Phase 3 Innovation is lower risk and lower profit

As an industry matures, the motivation of its participants varies based on their ambition for growth, profit or strategic position.  Time your innovations wisely.

[i] Adapted from Seeing What’s Next by Christensen, Anthony and Roth Harvard Business School Press 2004

Being Opportunistic in a Volatile World

Last week my post drew considerable attention, perhaps because of its shock value at a time when the news was truly shocking. While the tsunami was a natural disaster, the response on the part of the Tokyo Electric Company was a human calamity. Lack of preparation will invariably lead to unintended consequences, if you are managing a nuclear power plant or any other business.

The reverse is also true. The entrepreneur capable of understanding seemingly unrelated external forces, and weaving them into a thoughtful strategy, will clearly realize strategic advantage. How might the strategist consider social, technological, economic, ecological and political factors to gain insight on how to take advantage of ever changing market conditions?

Scenario planning is a methodology whereby the entrepreneur considers converging factors that (in combination) creates a tipping point. Consider some of the following predictions, based on facts already in evidence today.

In the next decade, we are likely to see:

Predicative Modeling-Cloud computing enables the migration and cross-referencing of large institutional databases.  For example, actuaries, using sophisticated algorithms are able to model ailments based on lifestyle choices monitored in real time. They are able to calculate your risk of a heart attack based on which smoothie you tend to order at Jamba Juice, your frequency of exercise, prescriptions you use, etc. Offered as a benefit of a health care plan, the member is offered incentives to opt-in and receive preferential rates. Such tools slow down rampant health care inflation.

A Cashless Society-The majority of transactions amongst big banks are managed by exchanges where no money actually changes hands. Coins of small denomination are nearing extinction. Today, you can download an iPhone app that serves as a debit card, and can be swiped within Starbucks locations.  For most transactions, cash is already irrelevant.

Smart Infrastructure- Automobiles come preinstalled with all of the features of an iPad (the 2011 Hyundai Equus will come with one) and all the benefits of the internet. Smart grids control the flow of traffic, directing drivers to particular lanes at a given speed to optimize drive time and reduce accidents. Traffic signals are regulated based on traffic volume. Sensors predict bridge and rail failures.

Of course, rapid change will occur in every industry, and the strategist must weigh various opportunities based on an organization’s ability to take advantage of them. As a general rule, organizations should seek to achieve scale and reach within its core (at least 30% market share) before expanding into new endeavors. As Jim Collins points out in his sequel to Good to Great (How the Mighty Fall), many companies fail because of an “Undisciplined Pursuit of More”.  In their zeal for diversification they often leap too far from their core competency.

Each opportunity must be assessed within the context of the organization’s resources, bandwidth, and human capital.  For every opportunity there is a cost, and an opportunity cost. To pursue any new opportunity an organization must leverage resources which dilutes focus on the core business.  Choose your opportunities carefully.

Tuesday’s WSJ pointed out that Wal-Mart is experiencing its second consecutive year of lackluster sales[i]. Historically, the world’s largest retailer has exploded in downturns, and held its own in upturns. Its expansive international growth has been a boon over the last decade.

While many focus on Wal-Mart’s controversial practices, the company is viewed as a leader in everything from sustainability to inventory management. Yet it seems that Wal-Mart has lost its way. In its zeal to reform retail, the company may have overstepped with customers. Consider the company’s initiatives towards organic foods, clearly a misread of customer wants at a time where value oriented shoppers could not afford to pay a price premium.  Former Wal-Mart executive Jimmy Wright said “the basic Wal-Mart customer didn’t leave Wal-Mart; Wal-Mart left the customer.”

Target has done an outstanding job carving out a market with offers that resonate with their more metropolitan and suburban shoppers.  Wal-Mart’s efforts to go more upscale with fashion plays right into Target’s hands; a key strategic mistake.  Pricing may also be an issue, as Wal-Mart has moved away from Sam Walton’s “Always Low Prices” stance with more “high-low” pricing strategies that would be more akin to a traditional supermarket chain.

It seems that Wal-Mart has lost sight of its core strength. There was elegance to Wal-Mart’s no nonsense approach to mass merchandising.  Stack it high, sell it cheap and do it more efficiently than everyone else. It was a formula that put the supercenter format on the map. Wal-Mart just got too hip, too trendy and too cute.  Maybe they have too many MBA’s complicating things.

The lesson in all of this is that whatever you do to evolve in your business, one still has to stay true to the core. You can never forget what your guiding principles are.  Don’t get too cute.

In Intended Consequences, I illustrated how our economy had endured a period of unparalleled turbulence. From Y2K to 9/11, the wars in Iran and Afghanistan, the Asian Financial Crisis, Katrina, Mad Cow and Enron/WorldCom we have experienced a decade of volatility. Recent history has presented the Gulf spill, the Haiti and Chile disasters, and now civil unrest in the Middle East. Volatility has become the norm.

The violence in Egypt is particularly daunting because we don’t have a sense of the extent to which the unrest will spread to other nations in the region. Even the White House seemed surprised as stories spread of the President watching television like the rest of us, trying to make sense of it all.

The passage of time has only magnified the “strategy paradox”. How can an organization plan for a future that is impossible to predict?  I believe that in the face of such uncertainty there is a compelling need for more examination, reflection and planning.  Uncertainty should prompt us to think more provocatively about how changes in our environment will manifest within our businesses and our society (one lesson we learned from protests in Egypt is that social networking is not only a tool, but a potential weapon).

Raw materials continue to be unstable, as prices from oil to cotton have moved sharply higher.  If you were a business dependent on such materials, you may need to rethink your pricing strategy, positioning, marketing, etc. in an effort to weather the storm, or perhaps take advantage of new opportunities (to raise prices for example).

One of the ironies of global events is that we cannot comprehend their severity in midstream. When we initially heard of the first plane striking the World Trade Center, we didn’t understand the implications. It was only after time that the terrorist plot and its affect on the world crystallized for us.

So as the events in the Middle East unfold, we must be more thoughtful about what might change. Will civil unrest further American interests or de-stabilize the region? What will be the affect on the stock market, currency markets, energy prices and raw material costs?  How might the U.S. and its allies react?

Only time will tell.

A federal judge’s recent ruling that elements of the health care bill are unconstitutional has heightened the health care debate.  Republicans, feeling their oats and perceiving a mandate are threatening to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

It was only after my friend and colleague Dr. Bala Chandrasekhar explained most of the information in this post to me that I first came to understand the fundamental problem.  Our medical community suffers from perverse incentives. The system does not reward results; it rewards the extension of care.

In the world’s best hospitals, such as the Mayo Clinic, physicians collaborate, in a finite space, where information is shared and decisions are made. In the overwhelming majority of cases, patients are shuttled around, from general practitioners, to specialist, and from one laboratory to the next.  Information about the patient’s medical history is rarely shared, an approach that does not support the best medical outcome for patients.

The advent of electronic medical records and new rules governing payments is the impetus to consolidation in a business so unsophisticated, that many medical files and prescriptions are managed with a piece of paper, pen and fax machine.  The institution of medicine needs to undergo radical change, and the prospects of larger organizations managing our care means that the stakes are getting higher.

Unlike professionally managed businesses, there are massive variations in best practices in medical groups.  Physicians hate oversight, and we pay the price in an estimated 100,000 people a year dying in U.S. hospitals from pure negligence (errors).

It is intuitive to all of us that raising medical care costs are unsustainable, yet the numbers are daunting.  The convergence of an aging populace and exponential health care inflation will double Medicare costs within a decade.  By 2020, Medicare and Medicaid are projected to increase from 21% to over 30% of federal spending (non-interest payments), and that doesn’t include massive spending by state and local governments. Proponents argue that we have the best medical care in the world; but at what cost? A knee replacement that costs upward of $40,000 in the U.S., costs $5,000 in Germany. We all want the best health care, but at some point common sense must prevail.

According to the bipartisan congressional report -Restoring America’s Future, “slowing the growth of health spending is realistic. Other advanced countries have substantially lower health spending as a share of GDP, while still achieving measures of access and quality that often exceed those in the United States. Although a uniquely American approach is required, these comparisons show what is achievable.” Health care reform focuses on capping costs for doctors and reforming various forms of insurance coverage (including universal coverage). It does little to reform the underlying behavioral issues that are driving up health care costs.  The fee for service model is dated and irrelevant.

If these costs are not constrained, our fiscal mess will get much worse, and our businesses and personal wealth will be drained by massive tax increases.  Small business owners, who bear the brunt of a bloated health care bureaucracy in the form of inflated health insurance premiums must advocate for more meaningful reforms.  Our economic future depends on it.