Businesses constantly struggle with capacity issues. Manufacturers seek access to the ideal manufacturing capacity, and service providers look to employ the optimum number of employees.  Both understand their labor spend is a key component of a company’s profit formula. So how is the entrepreneur to scale in an uncertain economy?

Those who had not experienced rapid market erosion previous to the liquidity crisis learned an important lesson; high fixed costs can be truly catastrophic when demand contracts quickly. Employers must marry labor costs with demand. There are several steps one can take to mitigate labor capacity risk:

Optimize Labor Efficiently- Most entrepreneurs intuitively understand that they should push low value activities down through (or out) of the organization.  Senior managers should aim for “zero administration”, where virtually all of their time is spent improving service or profitability, and not loading paper in the copier.  A good administrative assistant is worth their weight in gold. Similar thinking should apply to all; all work should be allocated to the appropriate staff based on their skill level, experience and cost.

Outsource Low Value Activities Based on Demand- The zeal for outsourcing is far from over. Organizations are not only seeking lower costs, they are looking to move resources outside their organization so that they can scale  their bandwidth quickly. Look for outsourcing partners who have infrastructure that can move, (in real time) with your business. Such organizations typically have an existing core competency in the services provided, including technology and human capital geared towards executing such work.

Increase Weighting of Incentives to Total Cash Compensation-Those who only provide subjective bonuses are actually doing themselves a disservice. Practically the entire Fortune 500 have moved to some type of performance based pay. Part of the rationale is to only pay out incentives when an organization reaches certain performance thresholds.  Failure to have a significant portion of cash compensation in incentives (20% or more) creates fixed costs and puts stress on a business and on employees. Fluctuations in demand require drastic action such as lay offs or furloughs.

Measure Labor Meticulously- Labor KPI’s are amongst the easiest predictive indicators to measure, and directly affect the bottom line. Examples include overtime, labor dollars per unit, direct labor, indirect labor and labor as a percentage of revenue.

Beware of External Demand Indicators- Within virtually every business segment there are external measures that provide context on future demand.  Add external indicators to your scorecard/dashboarding system so that you can stay in tune to the market place. Government websites, trade associations, and private research organizations offer a litany of statistics.  Plot such data  against company revenue to find which numbers correlate with business growth.

And now for my very favorite quote of the year, offered by Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn.  In reference to the Nissan Leaf, a zero emission vehicle, Ghosn said “this is the future, and everything else is going to look obsolete, like sending messages with pigeons”[i].

As Gnosh put it in an interview in Fast Company, “if you already have an emissions problem with 700 Million cars, what problems are you going to have with 2 Billion?”. In the case of Nissan, Ghosn is looking beyond the defined needs of customers and is anticipating the needs of the global market in a decade or more. It is not good enough to solve problems we can see, the strategist must seek to solve problems that are not readily apparent. To consider such scenarios, strategists must consider Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political trends and consider how various combinations may change the landscape of an industry.

In my book and blog“ Intended Consequences”, I predicted remarkably volatile prices for fuel and the potential for oil to reach prices of far north of $100 a barrel. The predication which became an eventuality was based on an evaluation of “converging factors”, independent trends that combine to create a tipping point. The automobile industry is on the cusp of such a fundamental shift. Toyota has been selling the Prius since, 1997 but the initial curve for adoption was remarkably slow. What we see in evidence today are converging trends that will provide the impetus to create disruptive change in the form of rapid adoption of alternative vehicles:

Political: The U.S. government’s recent announcement of an agreement with thirteen automakers that will reset the Café fuel economy standards to require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.[ii] The willingness of OEM’s (original equipment manufacturers), to work with the government in a race to dramatically improve fuel efficiency illustrates their understanding of radical changes in their operating environment.

Social: Shifting sensibilities towards sustainability will drive adoption. Electric cars are somewhat impractical for working people who may not have time to charge them (up to 8 hours) providing a leg up to hybrids.

Technology: The new Prius plug in will offer up to 87 miles to the gallon illustrating explosive improvement in battery technology. Many of the world’s top scientists are working on batteries that could expediently improve performance, size and cost.

Ecological: In Nissan’s case,  the rapid growth of highly polluted Asian markets is viewed as a driver for future demand. Recent disasters in the gulf and elsewhere have heightened awareness of the risks of oil exploration.

Economic: Americans are still fearful of OPEC’s influence and the ability of the cartel to manage worldwide oil prices. As battery prices decline, the value proposition of hybrids will only continue to improve, and the total cost of ownership for such vehicles will be drastically reduced.

Businesses are well advised to review such variables as to develop scenarios about their industry. It may not be possible to look into a magical crystal ball to predict the future, but careful study of trends provides us context on what products and services to develop in order to create disruption.

Google’s behemoth $12.5 Billion acquisition of Motorola’s phone business set a salvo across the bow in technology circles. Google’s largest acquisition raises the stakes in the quest for platform dominance. The trend towards vertical integration is clear, as Coke and Pepsi buy up their bottlers, and manufacturers such as General Motors and Boeing eat up suppliers.

Consider the plight of HP, who has no software dancing partner in the world of mobile computing and announced last week of their exit from the desktop business. Investors penalized the company (who bought competitor Compaq a decade ago) severely, erasing $12 Billion in market value with a matter of days. [i]

And then there is e-textbook publisher Kno, the VC backed darling of Silicon Valley, who recently shelved plans to create a tablet for the education market after realizing that they did not have the chops to compete on a global scale with tablet manufacturers. The company moved towards an App for iPad only to have their margins raided by Apple (who earns a 30% royalty). [ii] While Kno has enormous upside, it is unlikely to realize its vast potential unless it owns or is owned by a distribution partner.

Today’s turf wars are not with a single competitor, but with their entire distribution platforms (as in the case with mobile devices). So the consequences of globalization persist; the large get larger and the small find the right alliance or face considerable competitive disadvantage. Vertical integration provides a recipe for greater control of cycle time and quality and a significant cost advantage. At a time when margins are slimming, companies are looking to participate both up and down stream.

It appears that the swell of distribution channels has made distribution even more important, so those who can find unique methods of delivery are creating a first to market advantage, such as Amazon has with books. As private equity investors look for deal flow, and shrewd entrepreneurs look for bargain basement acquisitions, they should look not only at competition, but for suppliers or customers that present control and cost advantage throughout the entire supply chain.

With so much cash on the sideline, some sectors may be ripe for another round of consolidation. The choice many businesses face today is will they be the consolidator, or the consolidated?

The long term implications of Japan’s massive earthquake and tsunami have recently begun to materialize. Over the course of the last twenty years, management principles have centered on efficiency; do more with less.  Six Sigma, Lean Manufacturing, outsourcing, and off-shoring have boomed. Perhaps our fascination with reducing costs and optimizing return on assets has manifested in an overly minimalistic view of the world.

The recent supply chain disruptions have illustrated the vulnerability of our thinking as just in time translated into late product shipments, unsatisfied customers, and sluggish earnings, spanning from Toyota to Tiffany’s. The vulnerability may be far greater for smaller companies with less sophisticated logistics and reliance on a smaller web of suppliers.

Thus the central question is shifting away from what is the minimum possible cycle time to what are the supply chain risks and how can they be mitigated? Manufacturers have had to adapt, in some cases reengineering their products to use components or materials that have been suddenly unavailable.  Some product development teams have had to adapt, at times looking like a scene from Apollo 13 (when astronauts famously had to construct a part based on the materials they had on hand).

Customers have the right to ask more questions about how their vendors manage supply and what types of contingencies they have in place.  As has been evident in recent years, vendors and customers alike must think broadly about what eventualities could disrupt the global marketplace and collaborate on solutions. The horrific events in Japan reflect only the latest in a series of events that are reshaping how products come to market.

There is an old saying in poker; if you can’t see the sucker in the room…it is probably you.  The same can be said of advancements in technology. Forrester’s recently forecasted increases in IT spending of 8% in 2011 and 2012[i]. Recent M&A activity suggests the sector is heating up.

In many industries, market leaders create proprietary technologies and information systems that improve the customer experience directly or indirectly through information flow, efficiency, cycle time, etc.  At the current rate of change, a company either realizes a technological advantage, or is likely at a competitive disadvantage.

We have numerous clients who are either in the midst of ERP implementations, or considering similar upgrades to their systems. At some point the business owner must ask the strategic question; are our technology improvements truly game changers, or only an enhancement to existing ways of doing business?

More than 90% of ERP type systems are delivered late, and their implementations can be taxing to small and mid-market businesses. It is not difficult to spend $1 million+ (in hard and soft costs) in such systems, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of disappointing customers due to errors or missed timelines.  If entrepreneurs are going to expend valuable resources (time and money) on technologies, they had better select the right ones, and prime their organization to implement them seamlessly.

I find there are often two extremes during such implementations.  In some companies, functional department heads (such as sales, engineering, design) lack experience in software integrations and do not become invested in the deliverables until it is too late. Other times, companies become so fascinated with perfection, they lose sight of the objective, and become paralyzed in analysis. If a company’s enterprise system becomes dated because of their inability to act, competitors can seize the upper hand.

If you are considering such upgrades to your technology, it is often sensible to take the aggressive but measured approach. In other words, the strategist is always looking to leverage technology that reshapes the customer experience, improves efficiency or reduces costs in some material way while simplifying or automating processes.  Such decisions should not be left to the technologists, but shared by the leadership team who must be equally responsible for selection, scoping and integration.  Failure is not an option as an unsuccessful project can put a company years behind.

Don’t be the sucker.

This week, I want to expound on a series of unrelated events shaping our world:

Last year, a deluge of rain in Australia and Canada, and drought in Argentina and Russia sparked a worldwide rise in food prices.  On Dec. 17^th, after months of poor supply, Tunisian produce vendor Mohammed Bouazizi was mugged by police and then set himself on fire in protest.  Reaction to his plight set off a revolt in the Middle East. Beyond the radar to us overly indulgent Americans is that the world is on the verge of a global food shortage.

Ironically, the U.S. growers have reaped the rewards of higher prices for U.S crops and futures contracts. Wheat prices were up as much as 74%, (corn 87%[i]) and net farm income is up 20% this year. Demand is rising for dairy, meat and poultry to support a burgeoning global middle class.[ii] Spring planting of key crops will dictate food prices later in 2011 but farmers may be hesitant to plant in a period of high fuel and fertilizer costs.

While unrest continues throughout the Middle East, social states who provide strong entitlements such as UAB, Kuwait and Oman will likely not be threatened. Similar protests in oil rich Iran or Iraq would be more unsettling to world markets.

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As Motorola revealed its Xoom tablet this week, the Microsoft vs. Apple war took on a new dimension. The real war may be tablet vs. PC as a new generation of devices operating on Honeycomb-Android (Google) and other operating systems hit the market[iii].  Electronics makers are currently developing over 100 designs of new models, many of which sport more business friendly applications.

The second generation of iPads has been somewhat under wraps but is expected to be lighter, faster and include a camera and video conferencing capabilities. Apple’s advantage is its burgeoning iTunes and App Exchange platform.  Apple only spends about 7% of revenue on R&D, about half of what Google and Microsoft[iv] spend, providing a significant competitive advantage. I was in a meeting last week with 7 other people; everyone had a tablet.

Meanwhile, Microsoft (Office 365) and others are developing new Small Business Enterprise applications to better leverage the combination of mobile devices and low cost cloud computing options. The paradigm shift to storing all documents on the internet is emerging as a revolution coined as “cloud productivity.”

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Cisco’s new “telepresense” conferencing systems are all the rage, providing a far more realistic teleconference then the 1^st generation systems. With concerns over fuel costs and the environment, more companies may be moving towards adopting such technologies.

If you want to see an amazing video on future technologies, see “A Day Made of Glass…Made Possible by Corning” on YouTube.

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It is expected that the U.S. post office will eliminate Saturday delivery by the end of 2012.

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It is “hurry up and wait” for small businesses looking to minimize their insurance costs.  The health care bill requires that each state set up “health care exchanges” by 2014[v]. Most states are dragging their feet, and waiting to see what legal challenges emerge.  California has already pushed through legislation but other states are dragging behind.

It is expected that “exchanges” once enacted may actually bring about market conditions that will lower costs for small groups (in the neighborhood of 50 lives)  who will be better able to leverage buying power and have more predictable premiums. Let us pray.

[ii] The Kiplinger Letter Vol 88 No.

[iii] Motorola’s Xoom Starts Tablet Wars by Walter Mossberg WSJ 2/24/11

[iv] Mobile Wars Bloomberg Business Week 2/21/11

[v] The Kiplinger Letter Vol. 88, No. 7