January 9th, 2012
For most entrepreneurs, it has actually been a pretty good year. One wouldn’t know it based on reading the papers.
Housing and construction remain depressed. But an objective view reveals a surging Dow, low interest rates, stable energy prices and inflation that is in check. While GNP growth is modest, most businesses grew last year, and should grow again this year.
Many entrepreneurs I talk to want someone with a silver bullet to tell them which direction the economy is headed. Are we up or are we down? The constant analysis of minuscule shifts in U.S. demand is dizzying. My view is that the directional momentum of the economy is irrelevant for most businesses. It is a variable beyond our control. With no evidence to the contrary, one could assume that 2012 will be much of the same.
Entrepreneurs should be focused on revenue growth and where it will come from. Will revenue gains be with new clients, new products or services, new customers, or new geographies? What are the strategic priorities of your customers? What new service bundles will your competitors present? Every entrepreneur should remember, that the ROI within one’s existing core business typically yields a return of several times that earned in any new market.
Here are some things to look for in 2012:
Capital Investment: Of 781 companies surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business, 24% planned capital outlays in the next 6 months (the highest proportion in the last 40 months).[i] While still relatively sluggish, expansion of U.S. manufacturing capacity should continue as entire industries (such as automobiles) shift production back to the U.S. as a result of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Retail: The convergence of mobile devices and real time data has completely changed the face of retailing. Retailers will be moving towards solutions that morph the in-store and online retail experience. Consumer spending this Christmas season was high (up 6% through Q3 and with similar strength in Q4) even though joblessness remains relatively high (9.1%) and there is virtually no rise in household incomes.[ii]
Hiring: U.S. companies who have cut staff for 3 years are starting to hire again. Economist Carl Riccadonna said “We’re getting to the stage where employers can’t squeeze more water from the stone”. Remarkably, the talent war persists as many employers can not find skilled workers.
The worst is over with bankruptcies: Over one million consumers filed for personal bankruptcy in 2011, down sharply from 2010.
Credit Markets: If there is a cog in the wheel we should be worried about it is the state of major U.S. banks. Those with significant mortgage holdings (especially in home equity line of credits) of troubled assets on their books (some have even suggested at least one major U.S. bank is insolvent). 29% of homes in the U.S. are currently under water. The difference between 2012 and past cycles is that foreclosed property has virtually no value in depressed communities such as Buffalo and Cleveland. A major U.S. bank failure could reverse a year of positive projection in our confidence.
Construction: If there is an industry that has been beaten down it is construction (especially general contractors). Every project is won or lost by RFQ (request for quote). The few who are still profitable are niche players or those with a unique selling proposition or penetration in unique markets (such as those that do environmental work or projects for municipalities and state governments). While housing starts are seeing a very modest turn around, pricing will remain brutal for the foreseeable future.
Government: Presidential politics will dominate the debate, with entitlement spending and Obama care in the balance. In 2012, 30% of Medicare’s burden will shift to states[iii]. “Draconian” cuts in government spending at the Federal, State and Local level (with more than 200,000 expected lay offs in local government) will impact businesses reliant on government spending. It’s time to diversify if that is you. Outsourcing for government is an opportunity.
By now, every company should have revisited their strategic plan, set 3-5 year goals and set their budget for calendar 2012. Here is a useful New Years Proposition for you: invest your energy on building the infrastructure to support future growth, and focus on only those markets where you can dominate and remain profitable. For most businesses, this is a time to expect steady modest growth, and not to be making wild bets.
[i] A Brighter Future – Maybe by Angus Loten WSJ December 29, 2011
[ii] Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report by Experian
[iii] The Kiplinger Letter December 9th, 2011
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Posted by Marc Emmer - President - Optimize Inc.
December 27th, 2011
I believe this is a defining moment in our history. Our nation is in a fight for its soul. What kind of country do we want to be? I think we are the nation that takes care of its own.
Twelve percent of the 240,000 American veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are unemployed. Thirty percent of those under 24 are jobless, double the national average [i]. This is a national tragedy of epic proportions and those reading this post are the ones who can do something about it.
We can’t begin to repay veterans for the years they served for the country, the friends and family they have lost, or the sleep lost over the horrors of war.
But we can give them a chance to have a life when they come home.
Every company in America who is hiring should put veterans at the front of the line.
Hiring a veteran is a gift, not for them (they have earned the right to work) but for us. We should hire them because:
- Veterans make great employees: loyal, trustworthy, disciplined, hard working and tough.
- The Hire Heroes Act of 2011, passed last month (517-0 in Congress) provides up to $5,600 in tax credits to employers who hire a veteran
- Veterans provide inspiration to other employees, and send a message about what kind of employer you want to be
- Hiring war heroes helps drive home corporate values and messaging that resonates with customers, investors , vendors and the communities we serve
- Veterans are capable, many having mastered transferable technical skills
As the last American soldiers return from Iraq this week, we should take pause. As we celebrate our family, friends and faith, we should be thinking about those who have sacrificed so much, and have been received so little.
Most of us entrepreneurs have been the benefactors of American freedom, and it is time for us to show our appreciation.
Below are a set of resources for searching for qualified veterans:
http://www.vetjobs.com/
http://www.militaryhire.com/?gclid=CMT4ksjyia0CFQg1hwodswjGmg
http://www.hireveterans.com/
http://blogs.payscale.com/compensation/2010/01/tips-for-employers-hiring-veterans.html
[i] Unemployed for Young Vets by Dan Deucke Bloomberg Businessweek November 11, 2011
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Posted by Marc Emmer - President - Optimize Inc.
April 8th, 2011
I will ask that you all oblige me this week as I am going a bit off script with a post that is highly personal.
I live in Santa Clarita, a sleepy suburb of Los Angeles. My friends in the city mock our little enclave of 175,000, because it seems so remote, and vanilla. While our little community may be light on clubs and tattoo parlors, it is rich in something else…soul.
Last week we learned we lost one of our own; U.S. Army Spc. Rudy A. Costa was killed in Afghanistan. He was 19. He is not the first from our village to give his life to his country. And like the other times, the community celebrated his life. 5,000 lined a packed funeral procession, children adorning hand written signs and holding miniature American flags. 800 packed into a little church with hundreds more watching on televisions outside. Stoic soldiers from past wars openly wept.
I want to live in a place where I know my neighbors, and they know me. The business community here is so tight knit that you can’t go to a restaurant or a business function and not see droves of people you know. That is the way it should be.
There are times that we need to take a minute and remember that our business colleagues and our employees all want to be part of something bigger than they are. Last week I took note that some employers in town sent their employees to honor their lost hero. Those are some business people with perspective.
We are also reminded that there are things we should believe in above and beyond making a profit. We need to send a message to others that we value our community, and we need to make investments within it.
Unknown to most Americans, professional golfer Ryo Ishikawa is also 19, not even old enough to order a cocktail. But this young man of uncommon maturity understands his community. In an unprecedented gesture, he has pledged his entire earnings for 2011 to the relief effort in his native country, Japan…every nickel!
I am going to be rooting for Ryo this year (I don’t even know how to pronounce that, but I am going to learn). And of course I will be thinking about Rudy Costa and his family. Support your community. You will get your investment back in spades.
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Posted by Marc Emmer - President - Optimize Inc.
March 1st, 2011
The protesters marched on the highway, despondent about rapid inflation. They shut down the thoroughfare for hours. 1000 miles away, protesters flocked the capital and drove the legislators to safe haven in neighboring territories.
These were fundamentalists in Tunisia or Libya; they were students in California and state workers in Wisconsin.
The impetus for civil unrest in the Middle East is that of the “lost generation” of unemployed misdirected youth. In some regions of the world, unemployment is 40% or more. In the U.S. , it is not just the young that face underemployment but generations of workers whose skills have become irrelevant. The U.S. has the western world’s widest income distribution. The Top 10% make 6 times that of the bottom 10%, compared to 4.2 X for Great Britain and 2.8 X for Sweden[i]. The labor market has hollowed, as wages earned by shop floor workers have actually declined (when adjusted for inflation) over the last two decades.
The labor imbalance in the U.S. has far reaching implications, not only for the unemployed but for our economy as a whole. The inability of low wage earners to consume is a strain on U.S. growth.
While there is plenty of banter about the need for jobs, there is no systematic solution in place for retraining American workers such as displaced auto and steel workers. President Obama has called on U.S. business leaders to: “generate ideas for creating jobs, sustaining the economic recovery and making America more competitive”[ii].
Of course the notion of “creating jobs” is a little too convenient. Jobs are created when there is a need for them, and Americans get the jobs when they offer the most value. The problem is not that there are not enough jobs; it is that the cost-benefit for the employer often tips towards off-shoring. If our workers do not offer enough value in the form of specialized knowledge, ability to use technology, etc., jobs will continue to be shipped overseas.
This is not a protectionist rant, and my comments aren’t intended to incite a riot on free trade, or China manipulating currency, etc. I am focused on what we can control. What our nation needs is a retraining effort. The money we are spending on unemployment and other services would be better spent invested in people so that they can acquire new skill sets that are relevant in an ever changing world.
The question is who will lead, and who will pick up the bill? To prepare our workers for the future will require collaboration across business and government. Tax and other incentives need to be in place to encourage the retooling of America. So as GE Chairman Jeffery Immelt and the rest of the White House Council of Economic Affairs weighs in on jobs, I hope they emphasize that we need to create opportunities for workers, and provide them will the skill sets required to compete.
Otherwise, the marches may extend to Washington D.C. and a state capital near you.
[i] The Price of Everything Eduardo Porter
[ii] Obama wants business world’s best ideas on jobs USA Today
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Posted by Marc Emmer - President - Optimize Inc.
February 23rd, 2011
Tuesday’s WSJ pointed out that Wal-Mart is experiencing its second consecutive year of lackluster sales[i]. Historically, the world’s largest retailer has exploded in downturns, and held its own in upturns. Its expansive international growth has been a boon over the last decade.
While many focus on Wal-Mart’s controversial practices, the company is viewed as a leader in everything from sustainability to inventory management. Yet it seems that Wal-Mart has lost its way. In its zeal to reform retail, the company may have overstepped with customers. Consider the company’s initiatives towards organic foods, clearly a misread of customer wants at a time where value oriented shoppers could not afford to pay a price premium. Former Wal-Mart executive Jimmy Wright said “the basic Wal-Mart customer didn’t leave Wal-Mart; Wal-Mart left the customer.”
Target has done an outstanding job carving out a market with offers that resonate with their more metropolitan and suburban shoppers. Wal-Mart’s efforts to go more upscale with fashion plays right into Target’s hands; a key strategic mistake. Pricing may also be an issue, as Wal-Mart has moved away from Sam Walton’s “Always Low Prices” stance with more “high-low” pricing strategies that would be more akin to a traditional supermarket chain.
It seems that Wal-Mart has lost sight of its core strength. There was elegance to Wal-Mart’s no nonsense approach to mass merchandising. Stack it high, sell it cheap and do it more efficiently than everyone else. It was a formula that put the supercenter format on the map. Wal-Mart just got too hip, too trendy and too cute. Maybe they have too many MBA’s complicating things.
The lesson in all of this is that whatever you do to evolve in your business, one still has to stay true to the core. You can never forget what your guiding principles are. Don’t get too cute.
[i] Adapted from Mr. Sam’s Winning Formula by Miguel Bustillo, WSJ 2/22
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Posted by Marc Emmer - President - Optimize Inc.