And now for my very favorite quote of the year, offered by Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn.  In reference to the Nissan Leaf, a zero emission vehicle, Ghosn said “this is the future, and everything else is going to look obsolete, like sending messages with pigeons”[i].

As Gnosh put it in an interview in Fast Company, “if you already have an emissions problem with 700 Million cars, what problems are you going to have with 2 Billion?”. In the case of Nissan, Ghosn is looking beyond the defined needs of customers and is anticipating the needs of the global market in a decade or more. It is not good enough to solve problems we can see, the strategist must seek to solve problems that are not readily apparent. To consider such scenarios, strategists must consider Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political trends and consider how various combinations may change the landscape of an industry.

In my book and blog“ Intended Consequences”, I predicted remarkably volatile prices for fuel and the potential for oil to reach prices of far north of $100 a barrel. The predication which became an eventuality was based on an evaluation of “converging factors”, independent trends that combine to create a tipping point. The automobile industry is on the cusp of such a fundamental shift. Toyota has been selling the Prius since, 1997 but the initial curve for adoption was remarkably slow. What we see in evidence today are converging trends that will provide the impetus to create disruptive change in the form of rapid adoption of alternative vehicles:

Political: The U.S. government’s recent announcement of an agreement with thirteen automakers that will reset the Café fuel economy standards to require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.[ii] The willingness of OEM’s (original equipment manufacturers), to work with the government in a race to dramatically improve fuel efficiency illustrates their understanding of radical changes in their operating environment.

Social: Shifting sensibilities towards sustainability will drive adoption. Electric cars are somewhat impractical for working people who may not have time to charge them (up to 8 hours) providing a leg up to hybrids.

Technology: The new Prius plug in will offer up to 87 miles to the gallon illustrating explosive improvement in battery technology. Many of the world’s top scientists are working on batteries that could expediently improve performance, size and cost.

Ecological: In Nissan’s case,  the rapid growth of highly polluted Asian markets is viewed as a driver for future demand. Recent disasters in the gulf and elsewhere have heightened awareness of the risks of oil exploration.

Economic: Americans are still fearful of OPEC’s influence and the ability of the cartel to manage worldwide oil prices. As battery prices decline, the value proposition of hybrids will only continue to improve, and the total cost of ownership for such vehicles will be drastically reduced.

Businesses are well advised to review such variables as to develop scenarios about their industry. It may not be possible to look into a magical crystal ball to predict the future, but careful study of trends provides us context on what products and services to develop in order to create disruption.

There has been the occasional business leader whose reign has been magical (Welch and Jobs come to mind).  Yet their business often fall to sustaining enterprise value after they leave. GE’s revenue and stock appreciation has been stuck in neutral since Welch’s departure, as the 20^th century’s most profitable company tries to find its way.  Apple has been trading all over the map in the last few weeks as the market tries to reconcile a world without the imagination of Jobs and his fancy gadgets.

A systemic problem for private companies is that a lack of management and bench strength.  This dearth of talent goes deeper then inhibiting productivity in the short term; it is a significant barrier to value creation for the entrepreneur.  If an exit is an objective (as is often the case), buyers generally want to see a strong management team and bench that can support future growth. If it is the business owner and his brother-in-law that possess all of the tribal knowledge (intellectual capital) about how a business operates successfully, the enterprise can lose luster with investors.

There are similar problems when one or two employees within a company are technically superior to those around them. Often, feeling their power and value, they are unwilling to teach, document, and delegate. When management and boards allow such conditions to persist, they are doing a disservice to the shareholders and are putting the company at risk.

Organizations should:

1. Require that every manager have a delegate – Identify and develop strong number twos that can eventually step in and take on the job duties of every manager. If people can’t attend conferences or go on vacation, because no one else can cover their desk, it is a sign that they have not developed the talent around them. To develop others takes time and investment including focus on performance reviews, career pathing and training.
2. Institutionalize activities, duties and best practices – Develop thorough documentation. Companies must maintain policies and procedures if they are going to be operationally excellent. When a supplier errs, it is usually because an inexperienced junior staffer doesn’t do something the way his senior counter-part would have. Often the junior staffer is criticized, even though it is their management who put them in position to fail.
3. Teach - Great leaders are usually great teachers; they aspire to develop others through daily interaction, and the sharing of information. The inability to teach is often a sign that a manager views themselves as the only person competent enough to complete certain tasks, and makes excuses as to why they can’t find other people to step up.  Great companies have development plans for every key employee, and make resources available for their continuous improvement.

Organizations that formalize these practices in their companies will maintain a long term strategic advantage over those who do. The talent war has only just begun.