And now for my very favorite quote of the year, offered by Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn.  In reference to the Nissan Leaf, a zero emission vehicle, Ghosn said “this is the future, and everything else is going to look obsolete, like sending messages with pigeons”[i].

As Gnosh put it in an interview in Fast Company, “if you already have an emissions problem with 700 Million cars, what problems are you going to have with 2 Billion?”. In the case of Nissan, Ghosn is looking beyond the defined needs of customers and is anticipating the needs of the global market in a decade or more. It is not good enough to solve problems we can see, the strategist must seek to solve problems that are not readily apparent. To consider such scenarios, strategists must consider Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political trends and consider how various combinations may change the landscape of an industry.

In my book and blog“ Intended Consequences”, I predicted remarkably volatile prices for fuel and the potential for oil to reach prices of far north of $100 a barrel. The predication which became an eventuality was based on an evaluation of “converging factors”, independent trends that combine to create a tipping point. The automobile industry is on the cusp of such a fundamental shift. Toyota has been selling the Prius since, 1997 but the initial curve for adoption was remarkably slow. What we see in evidence today are converging trends that will provide the impetus to create disruptive change in the form of rapid adoption of alternative vehicles:

Political: The U.S. government’s recent announcement of an agreement with thirteen automakers that will reset the Café fuel economy standards to require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.[ii] The willingness of OEM’s (original equipment manufacturers), to work with the government in a race to dramatically improve fuel efficiency illustrates their understanding of radical changes in their operating environment.

Social: Shifting sensibilities towards sustainability will drive adoption. Electric cars are somewhat impractical for working people who may not have time to charge them (up to 8 hours) providing a leg up to hybrids.

Technology: The new Prius plug in will offer up to 87 miles to the gallon illustrating explosive improvement in battery technology. Many of the world’s top scientists are working on batteries that could expediently improve performance, size and cost.

Ecological: In Nissan’s case,  the rapid growth of highly polluted Asian markets is viewed as a driver for future demand. Recent disasters in the gulf and elsewhere have heightened awareness of the risks of oil exploration.

Economic: Americans are still fearful of OPEC’s influence and the ability of the cartel to manage worldwide oil prices. As battery prices decline, the value proposition of hybrids will only continue to improve, and the total cost of ownership for such vehicles will be drastically reduced.

Businesses are well advised to review such variables as to develop scenarios about their industry. It may not be possible to look into a magical crystal ball to predict the future, but careful study of trends provides us context on what products and services to develop in order to create disruption.

This week, I want to expound on a series of unrelated events shaping our world:

Last year, a deluge of rain in Australia and Canada, and drought in Argentina and Russia sparked a worldwide rise in food prices.  On Dec. 17^th, after months of poor supply, Tunisian produce vendor Mohammed Bouazizi was mugged by police and then set himself on fire in protest.  Reaction to his plight set off a revolt in the Middle East. Beyond the radar to us overly indulgent Americans is that the world is on the verge of a global food shortage.

Ironically, the U.S. growers have reaped the rewards of higher prices for U.S crops and futures contracts. Wheat prices were up as much as 74%, (corn 87%[i]) and net farm income is up 20% this year. Demand is rising for dairy, meat and poultry to support a burgeoning global middle class.[ii] Spring planting of key crops will dictate food prices later in 2011 but farmers may be hesitant to plant in a period of high fuel and fertilizer costs.

While unrest continues throughout the Middle East, social states who provide strong entitlements such as UAB, Kuwait and Oman will likely not be threatened. Similar protests in oil rich Iran or Iraq would be more unsettling to world markets.

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As Motorola revealed its Xoom tablet this week, the Microsoft vs. Apple war took on a new dimension. The real war may be tablet vs. PC as a new generation of devices operating on Honeycomb-Android (Google) and other operating systems hit the market[iii].  Electronics makers are currently developing over 100 designs of new models, many of which sport more business friendly applications.

The second generation of iPads has been somewhat under wraps but is expected to be lighter, faster and include a camera and video conferencing capabilities. Apple’s advantage is its burgeoning iTunes and App Exchange platform.  Apple only spends about 7% of revenue on R&D, about half of what Google and Microsoft[iv] spend, providing a significant competitive advantage. I was in a meeting last week with 7 other people; everyone had a tablet.

Meanwhile, Microsoft (Office 365) and others are developing new Small Business Enterprise applications to better leverage the combination of mobile devices and low cost cloud computing options. The paradigm shift to storing all documents on the internet is emerging as a revolution coined as “cloud productivity.”

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Cisco’s new “telepresense” conferencing systems are all the rage, providing a far more realistic teleconference then the 1^st generation systems. With concerns over fuel costs and the environment, more companies may be moving towards adopting such technologies.

If you want to see an amazing video on future technologies, see “A Day Made of Glass…Made Possible by Corning” on YouTube.

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It is expected that the U.S. post office will eliminate Saturday delivery by the end of 2012.

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It is “hurry up and wait” for small businesses looking to minimize their insurance costs.  The health care bill requires that each state set up “health care exchanges” by 2014[v]. Most states are dragging their feet, and waiting to see what legal challenges emerge.  California has already pushed through legislation but other states are dragging behind.

It is expected that “exchanges” once enacted may actually bring about market conditions that will lower costs for small groups (in the neighborhood of 50 lives)  who will be better able to leverage buying power and have more predictable premiums. Let us pray.

[ii] The Kiplinger Letter Vol 88 No.

[iii] Motorola’s Xoom Starts Tablet Wars by Walter Mossberg WSJ 2/24/11

[iv] Mobile Wars Bloomberg Business Week 2/21/11

[v] The Kiplinger Letter Vol. 88, No. 7

In Intended Consequences, I illustrated how our economy had endured a period of unparalleled turbulence. From Y2K to 9/11, the wars in Iran and Afghanistan, the Asian Financial Crisis, Katrina, Mad Cow and Enron/WorldCom we have experienced a decade of volatility. Recent history has presented the Gulf spill, the Haiti and Chile disasters, and now civil unrest in the Middle East. Volatility has become the norm.

The violence in Egypt is particularly daunting because we don’t have a sense of the extent to which the unrest will spread to other nations in the region. Even the White House seemed surprised as stories spread of the President watching television like the rest of us, trying to make sense of it all.

The passage of time has only magnified the “strategy paradox”. How can an organization plan for a future that is impossible to predict?  I believe that in the face of such uncertainty there is a compelling need for more examination, reflection and planning.  Uncertainty should prompt us to think more provocatively about how changes in our environment will manifest within our businesses and our society (one lesson we learned from protests in Egypt is that social networking is not only a tool, but a potential weapon).

Raw materials continue to be unstable, as prices from oil to cotton have moved sharply higher.  If you were a business dependent on such materials, you may need to rethink your pricing strategy, positioning, marketing, etc. in an effort to weather the storm, or perhaps take advantage of new opportunities (to raise prices for example).

One of the ironies of global events is that we cannot comprehend their severity in midstream. When we initially heard of the first plane striking the World Trade Center, we didn’t understand the implications. It was only after time that the terrorist plot and its affect on the world crystallized for us.

So as the events in the Middle East unfold, we must be more thoughtful about what might change. Will civil unrest further American interests or de-stabilize the region? What will be the affect on the stock market, currency markets, energy prices and raw material costs?  How might the U.S. and its allies react?

Only time will tell.

When the Internet was first thrust upon us, we didn’t know what to make of it. Nor did we know which of the entrants of the budding new market would win the beauty contest.  Our intuition was that someone (such as AOL, Netscape, Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo) would, and that the technology would be a game changer.

There are times when a technology is bigger than the first-to-market entrant who introduces it to us.  A current case in point is Toyota, a company who has been vilified in light of their massive quality and public relations problems. Yet Toyota has my attention, as they are braced to create disruption.

I recently bought a Lexus hybrid. I didn’t really buy it for environmental reasons, although reducing my carbon footprint was certainly a bonus. I bought it because I wanted all the toys, Lexus service and quality and was intrigued by the concept of 35 miles to the gallon (in a volatile world where the price of oil is at risk).

At its core, strategy is about managing trade-offs, and this technology provides the potential for consumers to gain the most, and give up the least.  I believe hybrid technology will emerge as a breakthrough, cross-over technology adopted by the majority of drivers in the U.S. in the next 5-7 years.  Electric cars are novel, yet inconvenient.  Americans are not going to adapt to sitting at charging stations for 2 hours, nor will they settle for a lack of power.  U.S. oil producers will not support any material shift to hydrogen, or corn, or recycled Twinkies, or whatever.  While the Prius was perceived as small and sluggish, the Lexus (a Toyota brand) is neither, and proves that the underlying technology can appeal to the masses. Toyota is way ahead of the pack in hybrid technology and I believe the day will come when it will provide a significant competitive advantage.

Of course this post is not about hybrids at all, it is about identifying breakthrough technologies that can disrupt an industry. Often, fortunes are made by the purveyor of a technology, as well as others who create alliances or business that can feed off it.

There are entire cottage industries being built to support such technologies, including the myriad of developers creating apps for The App Exchange (SalesForce) and Apple App Store.

Will Apple beat Microsoft in business computing (the answer is already clear in consumer products)?  Will cloud computing completely alter the technology landscape in ways we can’t even comprehend? Which mobile technologies will change the way we work and live?

What changes in health care technologies will revolutionize the way we care for the sick?  What emerging technologies could reshape your industry? What new delivery systems will improve the way your customers do business (or consume products)?  The answer will come based on who can create the best balance of trade-offs and win the beauty contest.