I just recently wrote in this space about the housing market’s affect on our broader economy. It appears as if real estate is the Pareto principle at work. Five states (Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada) have generated a shocking 46% of the nation’s foreclosures[i].

While there are a number of forces as work, there is one explicit predictor of foreclosure activity. States where judges must approve foreclosures in writing have 260% more activity than in other states.  As homeowners and banks wait for the government to take action, markets spiral downward, only diminishing the value of properties that have positive equity.

In the states where foreclosures are dealt with quickly, the market has already begun to turn.  Each of us can reach our own conclusions about the role of government (this is not the appropriate venue for such a debate).

The broader point is that the U.S. real estate market, like many other markets has vast regional differences and elements within it moving in different directions.  The concept of the “business cycle” is a bit of a misnomer. Traditional cycles have been disrupted and replaced with a series of variables that drive markets very quickly, sometimes without pretense or warning.

The events that created the recent housing bubble created the perfect storm.  The recovery will be another type of storm, with regions and even areas within regions recovering more quickly than others. We see similar phenomena in employment and growth in various industries.

It used to be that selecting the right industry was enough to ensure some level or prosperity. Today, entrepreneurs and investors need to find very specific opportunities and niches where growth and profit are plausible.

Like everything else, choose your real estate carefully.

Whenever they call a day “black”, you know something bad is going to happen. On the Friday after Thanksgiving, I wanted to vomit. Not because I ate too much, but because of the destruction done to the U.S. economy. As a purveyor of value creation, I find Black Friday repugnant. Even if you are not a retailer, there are lessons here for all of those fighting off commoditization.

U.S. retailing used to be the Pareto Principle in action, with as much as 75%-80% of profits being realized in the 4^th quarter. The holiday season has turned into a race of who can open the earliest, and sell the cheapest flat screen TV (you could have bought a 42 inch flat screen at Best Buy for $199).

Last year I was talking to a corporate Vice President who was quite happy with herself after doing all of her Christmas shopping on a single day (I believe 4 AM is still the middle of the night if you want to get technical). I asked her, “how many items did you buy”, “17” she said. “How many were on sale” I asked- “17” she replied.  The defense rests.

Retailers work on “blended margin”, the ability to attract customers with lower priced goods, only to flip them to higher margin products.  In grocery stores, staples such as milk which are very low margin are at the back of the store, and higher margin produce and deli at the front in the “traffic pattern”.  Black Friday represents the destruction of 100 years of merchandising evolution, and creates a frenzy of deep discounts (one shopper in Porter Ranch, CA used pepper spray on another over an Xbox).

Some may argue that the “strategy” is to win shoppers for future trips and control market share. That may work for the low price leader (WalMart), but it doesn’t work for other retailers and boutiques. Those are the retailers trying to train their customers to realize the value of their service, knowledge, and unique offerings, and may only have one or two shots at the buying crazed mother with three kids.

Here is the single most important and basic business principle one could ever communicate in a business blog: prices should be high when demand is high, and prices low when demand is low. The destruction of the industry is inevitable if retailers continue to discount the deepest when demand is high. The shame, the shame!

Here is a prime illustration of how deeply this perverse thinking has infiltrated the industry. Recently I was shopping at Macy’s, selected a garment and brought it to the register, clearly marked with the price I was willing to pay. The cashier pulls out a coupon and says, I can give you another 25% off.  The defense moves for an immediate verdict your honor.

Defenders will say that the competition made me do it. What competition? China, WalMart, Best Buy? The true answer is Amazon and other online retailers who have changed the game forever, and this year kicked in free shipping to make their offer more compelling (online purchases are predicted to rise another 17% this year). So the real problem is not some evil empire. We have seen the enemy and it is us.

In order to fend off deep discounting:

1. Find products that can co-exist with online purchases. How can your products compliment the deeply discounted products? An iPad offers very little margin to the retailer, but accessories such as head phones and adapters are very high margin and offer the opportunity for repeat business.
2. Reinvent your model so that you are purposeful in selling complimentary goods. If you are going to sell them a gun at cost, you had better have the staff, expertise, merchandising and inventory to sell them some bullets as well.
3. Teach your employees the profit formula. Most of your employees think you are making a ton of margin on those handguns, so you need to teach and incent based on your objective of selling more ammo (I would have picked a more pleasant example but I am feeling like a curmudgeon after all of this discounting).
4. Provide the ultimate in-store experience that rivals or beats the online experience. Perhaps customers can see, touch and feel products that are shipped to them later, or to their loved ones.
5. Select targets (product, location, etc.) that are less vulnerable to price attacks from discounters and online retailers.

Let the treasure hunters go to the competition; they are the least loyal of shoppers and you can’t make any money selling to them anyway.

With the sluggish selling season will be plenty of opportunities for deep discounts. Deep discounting marginalizes a business (unless you are the low cost leader). Retailers may need to offer products at cost, but should do so with a clear pricing strategy built on balancing market share and profit.

One of the bi-products of our caffeine crazed, media blitzed economy is that we have virtually no attention span. It is as if we have a collective form of ADD. Over time, customers get bored with their vendors, alliance partners and trade associations. Client relationships have a natural tail.

The ability to continuously delight customers is a skill mastered by few. Clients need some type of stimuli that reinforces the value we provide them and it needs to come in different forms at different times. Variety is not just the spice of life; it is the remedy for overcoming the dreaded- inevitable customer fatigue.

Entertainers understand the element of surprise all too well. We all have a lot to learn from that ingenious management mind; Jerry Garcia. In the 60’s, the Grateful Dead had a Board of Directors and a call center. Whenever “the Dead” where touring, “Deadheads” who had gladly forked over their phone numbers would receive outreach about upcoming performances. The Deadheads would do something extraordinary; they would follow the band from city to city. As every show was an ad lib (jam), no two were alike, and no one knew what the Dead were going to play. Most businesses would kill to have the raving fans of the Dead.

The problem of customer fatigue is exacerbated by the fact that challengers are incented to barrage prospects with new offers and discounts in a way that an incumbent is not. In relative terms, the incumbent can easily become complacent and offer clients much of the same. As the old adage goes, “if it isn’t broke…”.

I heard of a guy who gave a business review presentation to a client on an iPad. At the end of the presentation, he said to his client “thank you so much for your business” and handed him the iPad. Giving such generous gifts may not be as accepted as it once was, but imagine the shock value of the meeting. It is one the client will never forget! We need to find ways to maintain our clients’ attention span.

Customer fatigue only magnifies themes we have often shared in this space. The number one rule of customer relationship management is to take better care of the customers you already have than new ones you might attract. Offering our best discounts to new customers flies in the face of this principle. Organizations often position their best people as hunters, and then delegate customer service to others (who may not be empowered to make customer retention decisions). An organization can easily lose sight of its most precious possession, its most profitable customers.

Customers should be treated differently based on their lifetime value, and perhaps even receive different benefits based on their tenure.  One of my clients recently calculated their average client retention cycle (and at what time they lose the average client) and is now taking steps to change their approach over the span of the customer relationship.

Find a way to shake things up and keep customers coming back for more.

One of the bi-products of our caffeine crazed, media blitzed economy is that we have virtually no attention span. It is as if we have a collective form of ADD.

Over time, customers get bored with their vendors, alliance partners and trade associations. Client relationships have a natural tail.

The ability to continuously delight customers is a skill mastered by few. Clients need some type of stimuli that reinforces the value we provide them and it needs to come in different forms at different times. Variety is not just the spice of life; it is the remedy to overcoming the dreaded inevitable customer fatigue.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that challengers are incented to barrage prospects with new offers and discounts. In relative terms, the incumbent can easily become complacent and offer clients much of the same. As the old adage goes, “if it isn’t broke…”.

Customer fatigue only magnifies themes we have often shared in this space. The number one rule of customer relationship management is to take better care of the customers you already have than new ones you might attract. Offering special discounts to new customers flies in the face of this principle.  Organizations often position their best people as hunters, and lowly customer service agents as the face of the company with current clients. An organization can easily lose sight of its most precious possession, its most profitable customers.

Vendors should track the average length of their relationships and take actions to prolong them. The element of surprise is understood by entertainers and magicians. Similar tactics can be applied from our business gifts, customer reviews, plant tours and the like. Customers should be treated differently based on their lifetime value, and perhaps even receive different benefits based on their tenure. Find a way to shake things up and keep customers coming back for more.