I have been accused of being the eternal optimist. Guilty as charged. Our economy seems to have turned a corner; employment is gaining steam and the stock market is surging. Yet housing seems to be stuck in quicksand.

I am not here to dispense any investment advice, but instead want to pass on some observations on the plight of the U.S. housing market. While much is being made of the insolvency of European banks, we should be equally troubled by the assets held by the largest U.S. banks.

Consider the prospects of Bank of America. The bellwether financial institution required a government bail out, and an infusion by Warren Buffet after its prepackaged acquisition of Countrywide’s toxic assets. The bank holds a staggering $400 Billion+ in U.S. mortgage debt, a third of it in home equity lines of credit – the true villain in the U.S. real estate collapse.

According to B of A, 5% of its mortgage portfolio assets are “non-performing” or are in default.  Some have accused the bank of uneven accounting on its balance sheet.[i] Some estimates forecast as much as 39% of its portfolio having a combined loan to value rate below 100% (upside-down). It is expected that about a third of those mortgages could default, and that the banks losses for the average loan are far higher than 50%. Unlike past swings in the market, foreclosed homes have little retained value for the lender, and are boarded up or even torn down. JP Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo do not fair much better in terms of performing assets[ii].

Perhaps even more perplexing is weakness in the underlying real estate market.  Economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics suggests there is an excess inventory of more than 1 Million residential properties. Housing supply is somewhat stagnant. In Los Angeles for example inventory has gone down 1.65% through September but prices showed 0% change for the year[iii]. As a result, housing starts are projected at a tepid 620,000 for 2012 (according to Federal estimates)[iv]

Even though money is very cheap, many borrowers can’t qualify for a mortgage under the exacting standards being employed by banks. Under tight scrutiny by regulators, we are seeing the familiar rubber band effect as lenders have gone from one extreme to the other – lending to everybody with a pulse to rejecting buyers with cash and good credit scores.

Consumer behavior has also shifted. While lower than 2010, a whopping 17% of defaults are “strategic defaults” where borrowers can afford their monthly payment, but simply walk away.[v]

What is hurtful is not only the affect that the real estate market has on realtors, title companies and mortgage lenders; but the shadow economy it supports. Construction and subprime manufacturers of everything from lighting fixtures to lumber are suffering at the hands of weak U.S. housing demand.  The reality is that much of our economy’s GDP growth over the last two decades is a reflection of a false premise, that Americans can just pull money out of their homes on demand.

So as the housing market goes, so goes our economy. Forecasts of 2 and 3% growth rates are a direct result of consumer affluence being minimized by zero wage growth and declining property values.

While economists are cautiously optimistic about America’s future (as am I), we need to be cognizant that a further depression of the housing market could lead to the failure or bail out of U.S. banks which undoubtedly would reverse recent market gains and economic momentum.

Many CEOs feel that they are the victims of a lackluster economy and a government that is ineffective at offering any meaningful stimulus. In fact, 79% of CEOs fear that the fundamentals of our sluggish economy will remain the same or get worse.[i]

Economists have long understood that our thinking about the economy is governed by emotion. U.S. history is riddled with periods of growth and decline steered by the mood of the nation.

My generation grew up with a relative level of stability. We are simply not accustomed to the notion of “economic uncertainty” and we are not very happy about it. As a result, we have the tendency to overreact to stimuli in the form of collective euphoria or collective despair. This emotional response explains the nature of bubbles, as we all race to adhere to the conventional wisdom of the moment.

Today’s wisdom is that we should be scared…about sluggish growth, high raw material prices, health care costs, China, the Federal deficit, taxation and lots of other things. You know our psyche is a bit fragile when people are worried about inflation and deflation at the same time.

Our thinking often crystallizes around “the economic cycle,” which is something of a misnomer. Every business participates in this broader cycle, as well as a monetary cycle, industry cycle and company life cycle. The economy itself is merely a component in a spider-web of stressors that can be triggered by a myriad of forces from around the world.

Our expectations seem unrealistic, framed during a time when banks over leveraged, real estate was overpriced and stock market multiples were in the stratosphere.

The reality is that our economy is still growing (although perhaps in tepid fashion). Forecasts are for GNP growth of 1-2% for the remainder of 2011. When our GNP is growing at 4% we are bulls, but at 2% we are bears.  This meager difference illustrates that our fear is based on perception and is somewhat irrational. It is like the fear of flying: one knows that statistically there is virtually zero chance of a crash, yet to some, the fear is quite real.

Perhaps what we really have to fear is fear itself.  We should not be scared of a 2% variance, we should embrace it. In many instances, it will be the confidence of the CEO that will drive the level of investment businesses make, which will in turn either be the impetus for growth or maintain mediocrity.

Of the CEOs recently surveyed, 41% believe that prices of their products or services will rise next year. The potential for rising raw material and energy prices in 2012 could actually be a boon to vendors who are posturing to raise prices.

It is time to reset expectations with our customers, vendors, employees and ourselves. Within this data, there is plenty of salt, but perhaps there are a few grains of sugar as well.

A good leader must exude confidence in his or her business every day. If you don’t see the value in your products and services, no one else will. When the competition is weak, it is time to attack. Let your competitors have the scarcity mindset, while you focus on the strategic gambits that will grow your business and create sustainable competitive advantage. We will get our 2% back some day—we just need to be a little patient.

[i] Vistage CEO Confidence Index

In Intended Consequences, I illustrated how our economy had endured a period of unparalleled turbulence. From Y2K to 9/11, the wars in Iran and Afghanistan, the Asian Financial Crisis, Katrina, Mad Cow and Enron/WorldCom we have experienced a decade of volatility. Recent history has presented the Gulf spill, the Haiti and Chile disasters, and now civil unrest in the Middle East. Volatility has become the norm.

The violence in Egypt is particularly daunting because we don’t have a sense of the extent to which the unrest will spread to other nations in the region. Even the White House seemed surprised as stories spread of the President watching television like the rest of us, trying to make sense of it all.

The passage of time has only magnified the “strategy paradox”. How can an organization plan for a future that is impossible to predict?  I believe that in the face of such uncertainty there is a compelling need for more examination, reflection and planning.  Uncertainty should prompt us to think more provocatively about how changes in our environment will manifest within our businesses and our society (one lesson we learned from protests in Egypt is that social networking is not only a tool, but a potential weapon).

Raw materials continue to be unstable, as prices from oil to cotton have moved sharply higher.  If you were a business dependent on such materials, you may need to rethink your pricing strategy, positioning, marketing, etc. in an effort to weather the storm, or perhaps take advantage of new opportunities (to raise prices for example).

One of the ironies of global events is that we cannot comprehend their severity in midstream. When we initially heard of the first plane striking the World Trade Center, we didn’t understand the implications. It was only after time that the terrorist plot and its affect on the world crystallized for us.

So as the events in the Middle East unfold, we must be more thoughtful about what might change. Will civil unrest further American interests or de-stabilize the region? What will be the affect on the stock market, currency markets, energy prices and raw material costs?  How might the U.S. and its allies react?

Only time will tell.

Just because the economy is treading water, doesn’t mean your business has to.

History suggests that the stock market performs best under a Democratic President and a Republican Congress. Investors like predictability. If this scenario becomes a reality it will yield little in the way of new legislation.

The market has generally been a leading indicator, and many have been waiting for our economy to switch gears. But our economy appears stuck in a vicious cycle.  Lackluster GNP growth translates into little job creation.  The combination of unemployment and underemployment (thought to be close to 20%) is creating downward pressure on any potential housing recovery.

Kiplinger’s (October 8^th) predicts a housing double dip, with prices declining as much as 3% next year.  With housing starts at soft 600,000-700,000 units, massive shadow industries such as construction, and building materials, will remain depressed.

The wild card in world economics is currency fluctuations as governments continue to manipulate their currencies and provide subsidies on various products and raw materials. China, who now possesses about $1 Trillion in U.S. debt, is only raising their influence within the U.S. economy.  If the dollar were to crash and raw materials or energy prices rise (most are imports), hyper-inflation could become a reality quickly.

So we are likely in for much of the same.  I maintain what I have been saying for 2 years, there is more downside risk than upside risk, but the greatest probability is that growth remains positive but sluggish.  Stronger companies who planned for a downturn and have sufficient cash, and/or those with strong value propositions will continue to be profitable.  Those stuck in a wave of commoditization that has marginalized their business will tread water. The weak will go away.  Those industries that have not yet consolidated are ripe for M&A activity.

Some executives got fat and lazy in the extraordinary run of the last two decades, knowing they could pass on a 4% price increase ever year and generate 10% on the bottom line. The economics of the day require us to view the world differently. The problems are not cyclical, they are permanent.

It all comes down to the same formula that works in times of boom or bust. Companies need to find a sweet spot, a narrow range in which they can provide value to the marketplace.  Customers are fickle and professional buying organizations more frugal; often requiring a Request for Proposal (RFP) process, for even the most mundane (one bid we heard of included toilet paper).

The downturn has only reinforced that to maintain a sweet spot the marketer may have to be narrower than in the past. The world has become hyper-competitive, and if anything competitors from emerging markets are becoming stronger. Most businesses do not have a cost problem, they have a revenue problem. Don’t rest on your laurels, become completely consumed with improving your offer; every day.

Here we go again. Suddenly, people are fleeing the stock market for the safety of muni’s and other low risk investments. The U.S. dollar is strong only because of the weakness of the Euro and other foreign currencies supported by extraordinary deficits.  Emerging markets such as China, India and Singapore are the only ones growing and even China’s forecasts are cooling. Some economists are calling all of this a dreaded double dip.  Is this spasm an overreaction?

I am not here to offer a prediction as much as some perspective. Historically, there have been two elements that have preceded U.S. recessions.  Typically, there has been a scandal such as the Savings and Loan Crisis, Michael Milken, Enron/Worldcom, and most recently the liquidity crises triggered by the likes of Goldman Sachs, AIG, Lehman Bros, and Bear Stearns, where someone has manipulated a market (most recently derivatives and credit default swaps).  Secondly, the recession usually follows a bubble (dot.com, real estate, etc).  In other words, our economy gets fat and happy, investors take advantage, and then the bubble bursts.

We certainly have not seen our economy swell over the last 12 months.  People have been so desperate for good news that we accepted what little there was as signs of a recovery.  The reality is that our economy grows at about 5% in times of prosperity, and 2% in times of stagnation.  Three percent swings us from optimism to pessimism, which reinforces the magnitude of emotions in our decision making. Fear is always the most powerful emotion and motivator, greater than love and all the others.

So how will the next few months play out? I don’t have a concrete answer for that but what I do know is that our reaction to the sound bites from economists and experts is quite personal. Our practice is thriving at the moment (in part due to the acceptance of the book) which is proof positive that the performance of an organization can be driven in part by one’s confidence and sheer will. Certainly, market forces are in play and in some businesses (like construction) you can still hear the giant sucking sound.  In others the business can best be described as mediocre and the entrepreneur must decide how much investment (in sales and marketing for example) is appropriate.  What I have seen from manufacturing clients is that are petrified of expanding their factories out of fear that they will not be able to dial back capacity.

In a universe where most are passive, there is more opportunity for the aggressors.  I read of one recent investor who bought BP and shorted Apple, a counter strategy that clearly made him a lot of money. While I am not dispensing any investment advice, I am suggesting that we all must make individual choices on the level of risk we are willing to accept. In an age when things are uncertain, there is as much evidence that we will continue along a modest recovery path as there is that the bottom will fall out, and I have made the choice to stay on course. If you are not comfortable with the status quo, it may be time to find new product, services, channels or sectors because there does not appear to be a hockey stick coming any time soon.